Why South DFW Isn't Following
Collin County's 2026 Correction
What's Actually Happening in Collin County
Collin County includes Frisco, Plano, McKinney and Prosper. Home values there climbed fast during the pandemic and were falling by spring 2026. Zillow's data for March 31, 2026 put the average Collin County home value at about $488,000, down 6.1 percent over the past year. Homes were going pending in around 43 days (Zillow figures as reported by Dallas Express).
Redfin's March 2026 figures showed the same drop in actual sales: a median sale price of $440,000, down 6.5 percent from a year earlier. SmartAsset studied the 100 biggest U.S. metro areas. As reported by CultureMap Dallas (April 16, 2026), it ranked Plano fifth for the drop in home values from February 2025 to February 2026.
The drop came after a big run-up: Collin County's Zillow value rose 57 percent from February 2020 to its July 2022 peak (Zillow). For anyone watching from across DFW, the question was whether the same pressure was coming for the rest of the metro.
North DFW vs South DFW: The Numbers Side by Side
The chart below shows the change in average home value over the year to March 2026 for six DFW cities, from Zillow's Home Value Index (ZHVI). North DFW (red) and South DFW (navy) are on the same scale.
North DFW vs South DFW, Year to March 2026
Collin County
Collin County
Collin County
Ellis County
Tarrant County
Ellis County
Source: Zillow Home Value Index, March 2026 vs March 2025.
The full table, with average home values and days on market:
| City / County | Avg Home Value (Mar 2026) | YoY Change | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco Collin County | $654,070 | -5.1% | 47 days |
| Plano Collin County | $504,799 | -5.3% | 45 days |
| McKinney Collin County | $482,487 | -6.9% | 54 days |
| Mansfield Tarrant County | $441,244 | -1.9% | 73 days |
| Midlothian Ellis County | $453,006 | -1.1% | 108 days |
| Waxahachie Ellis County | $371,114 | -2.2% | 84 days |
Sources: average home values and year-over-year change from the Zillow Home Value Index, March 2026. Days on market: Redfin's median for April 2026, except McKinney, which is Houzeo's March 2026 figure.
Redfin's sale prices pointed the same way. In March 2026 the median sale price was down 0.9% from a year earlier in Mansfield, down 1.9% in Midlothian and up 3.4% in Waxahachie. It was down 9.0% in Plano and 3.0% in Frisco. The two measure different things (Zillow estimates the value of all homes; Redfin tracks the homes that sold that month), and month to month they disagree. Both put South DFW close to flat and North DFW clearly down. Homes took longer to sell in South DFW, though, as the days-on-market column shows.
Six months later: Zillow's September 2026 figures show the same split, a little narrower. Frisco was down 3.9%, Plano 3.3% and McKinney 5.1% from a year earlier, against Mansfield down 0.2%, Midlothian 0.2% and Waxahachie 1.2% (Zillow Home Value Index).
Why South DFW Didn't Drop With Collin County
Three differences line up with the price gap, though none of them proves what caused it:
- A smaller run-up. From February 2020 to the 2022 peak, Zillow's value rose about 48 percent in Mansfield and 47 percent in Midlothian. Collin County rose 57 percent and Frisco 67 percent (Zillow). Plano is the exception: it rose 50 percent, close to Mansfield, and still fell 5.3 percent.
- A lower entry price. In mid-2021 Mansfield's average home value was about $371,000, while Frisco's was already about $516,000 (Zillow).
- Smaller payments. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was close to 6.5 percent in late May 2026. At that rate, with 20 percent down, Mansfield's average home ($441,244 in March 2026) costs about $1,080 a month less in principal and interest than Frisco's ($654,070): about $2,230 against $3,310.
None of this means the gap is permanent. Texas A&M's TRERC January 2026 forecast expected falling rates to lift Texas home sales a modest 2.5 percent. Rates went the other way: Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.18 percent on November 5, 2026.
What This Means if You're Buying in 2026
If you're set on Collin County, you have leverage. In March and April 2026, Collin County homes spent a median of about 50 to 70 days on the market, against about 14 days at the 2022 peak. They sold for about 97 percent of list price on average (Redfin), so buyers had room to negotiate. NAR's 2026 outlook expected lower mortgage rates to lift home sales about 14 percent nationwide. By November 2026 the 30-year average was higher than in spring, at 7.18 percent.
If you're open to South DFW, your money goes further. In March 2026, Zillow's average Frisco home was worth about $213,000 more than Mansfield's ($654,070 against $441,244, Zillow). The trade is the drive to North Dallas employers, about 50 to 65 minutes from Mansfield without traffic to the Galleria area, Legacy West or Frisco. Downtown Dallas is 31.7 road miles away, about 41 minutes. You also get less of the master-planned new-construction feel that defines Frisco and Prosper. In Mansfield, MISD's 2025-26 TEA accountability ratings, released in August 2026, show all 8 high schools at A, and U.S. News ranks Frontier STEM Academy No. 3 in Texas for 2026-27 (MISD). Mansfield's home values also held up better than Collin County's through spring 2026.
What This Means if You're Selling in Mansfield, Midlothian, or Waxahachie
Homes priced near the market were still selling in spring 2026, but they took longer than they used to. Mansfield's median was 73 days on market in April 2026, against 14 to 19 days in spring 2022. Homes sold for about 97.8 percent of list price on average in March 2026 (Redfin). So homes took longer to sell, but prices stayed close to flat. In Collin County, homes took longer to sell and prices fell.
Three rules for sellers:
- Don't anchor to 2022 comps. They were peak-pandemic prices and they don't reflect today's buyers. Pull comparables from the last 60 days, not the last 24 months.
- Don't overprice and chase the market down. Start at the price recent comparables support, so the listing doesn't need a string of cuts.
- Don't assume the North DFW correction is contagious. The figures above are from March and April 2026, and the September 2026 check shows the same split. Read the Collin County headlines and stay calm. That's not your market.
For the full spring 2026 picture of Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie, see the DFW Housing Market Update for Spring 2026. For the latest numbers, see the current DFW housing market update.
Silvia's Take: How I Steered a California Investor
“A California-based investor recently called me wanting to buy a DFW Airbnb. He was set on Frisco. He'd seen the press about The Star, PGA HQ, and Stonebriar, and figured the brand name was where his money should go. I steered him to The Colony instead. It's Frisco's southwestern neighbor with its own Grandscape attractions plus Frisco minutes away. A turnkey home with a pool runs significantly less than the Frisco equivalent. In a market where prices are sliding across North DFW, a lower entry price means a smaller dollar loss if values keep slipping. He ended up with a property that pencils for short-term rental, in a city he didn't know existed when he picked up the phone.”
Silvia Poulin
REALTOR® · Modern Feather Realty Group at BK Real Estate
Related Reading
DFW Housing Market Update for Spring 2026
Texas A&M data, Q1 closed sales, and how Mansfield, Midlothian, and Waxahachie compared as DFW's spring 2026 market shifted toward buyers.
Mansfield vs Midlothian: 2026 Side-by-Side
Schools, commutes, and median prices across the two main South DFW corridors.
South DFW Suburbs Compared
How far apart are Mansfield, Midlothian, and Waxahachie? Six South DFW suburbs side by side.
Texas Property Tax Guide 2026
The $140K homestead exemption, county rates, and protest deadlines. Everything every Texas homeowner needs to know.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about the 2026 split between North and South DFW.
Are home prices dropping in Frisco in 2026?
Yes. Zillow put Frisco's average home value at about $654,000 in March 2026, down 5.1% from a year earlier, and it was still down 3.9% in September 2026. Redfin's median sale price for March 2026 was down 3.0%. The two measure different things (Zillow estimates all homes, Redfin tracks sales), but both show Frisco prices below a year earlier.
Is the Mansfield housing market in a correction?
Not on the yearly numbers. Zillow showed Mansfield down 1.9% from a year earlier in March 2026 and down 0.2% in September 2026, and Redfin's median sale price was down 0.9% in March 2026. Mansfield's March value was still about 5.4% below its August 2022 peak, and homes took longer to sell (a median of 73 days on market in April 2026, per Redfin).
Why are North DFW prices dropping more than South DFW?
Several differences line up with the gap. Collin County's Zillow value rose about 57% from February 2020 to its 2022 peak, against about 48% in Mansfield, though Plano rose 50% and still fell 5.3%. Collin County also started from a higher price tier, and its inventory was 62% above the long-term average by May 2026 (Reventure, via Dallas Express). At 6.5% with 20% down, Frisco's average home costs about $1,080 a month more in principal and interest than Mansfield's (Zillow values, March 2026).
Should I buy in Frisco or Mansfield in 2026?
It depends more on your commute and lifestyle than on market timing. Frisco gave buyers room to negotiate in spring 2026, with homes selling for about 97 percent of list price on average (Redfin). Its average home was also worth about $213,000 more than Mansfield's (Zillow, March 2026). Mansfield lost less value and puts you closer to Arlington and Fort Worth jobs, with less of the master-planned new-construction feel. Both can work.
Is now a good time to sell in Mansfield, Midlothian, or Waxahachie?
It can be, if you price correctly. South DFW home values were close to flat in spring 2026 (Zillow: down 1.1% to 2.2% from a year earlier in March 2026) and still close to flat in September 2026. Homes take longer to sell than in 2022. Price to comparables from the last 60 days, not the last 24 months, avoid a stale listing, and don't panic at Collin County headlines. That's a different market.
What's the difference between Collin County and Tarrant County housing markets?
Collin County (Frisco, Plano, McKinney) was down 6.1% from a year earlier in March 2026 per Zillow, with inventory 62 percent above the long-term average (Reventure, May 2026). Tarrant County as a whole was down 2.5%, and Mansfield, in south Tarrant County, was down 1.9%. Collin County's higher price tier, bigger pandemic run-up and inventory surge likely explain part of the gap.
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