Why South DFW Isn't Following
Collin County's 2026 Correction

What's Actually Happening in Collin County

Collin County is home to Frisco, Plano, McKinney, and Prosper. These are the suburbs that made every "fastest growing" list during the pandemic, and in spring 2026 that growth has reversed. Zillow's April 30, 2026 release shows the average Collin County home value at $491,376, down 6.3 percent over the past year. Homes are going to pending in 27 days, and 71.1 percent of sales closed under list price in March.

Redfin's March 2026 snapshot is even sharper for the sale-side cut: county prices down 7.2 percent year-over-year, median $440K. CultureMap Dallas (April 16, 2026) ranked Plano as the 5th biggest home-price decrease in the country in 2026. WFAA covered it on local news in April.

This isn't a crash. It's a reset on a market that ran 30 to 40 percent above pre-pandemic prices in four years. But for anyone watching from across DFW, the question is whether the same pressure is coming for the rest of the metro.

North DFW vs South DFW: The Numbers Side by Side

The chart below shows the year-over-year change in average home value across six DFW cities per Zillow's ZHVI index. North DFW (red) and South DFW (navy) are on the same scale. The contrast tells the story in one glance.

The full table with median home values, Days on Market, and per-city Zillow source links:

Sources (ZHVI): Frisco · Plano · McKinney · Mansfield · Midlothian · Waxahachie. Sources (DOM): Frisco (reAlpha), Plano (Redfin), McKinney (Houzeo), Mansfield + Waxahachie (Redfin).

Sale-side data from Redfin tells a complementary story: Mansfield was +0.9% YoY in March 2026, Midlothian +5.6%, Waxahachie +7.8%. The two indexes measure different things (Zillow tracks all home values; Redfin tracks homes that actually sold), and they disagree slightly. But the direction is consistent. South DFW prices are essentially flat to slightly up, while North DFW is down 5 to 7 percent.

Why South DFW Didn't Drop With Collin County

Five things separated South DFW from Collin County during the pandemic boom, and the same five things explain why prices are holding now:

1. Lower entry price. Mansfield averaged in the $300s when Frisco was already pushing $500s. Less room to overshoot, less room to fall back.
2. Employment mix. Collin County leaned hard on big-tech, finance, and corporate HQ relocations — sectors that saw 2024-25 layoff cycles. South DFW employment is more diversified: healthcare, manufacturing, energy services, and Dallas-Fort Worth commuters.
3. Mansfield ISD pull. MISD's 2024-25 TEA accountability ratings show 7 of 8 high schools at A. Frontier STEM is #1 in Texas per SchoolDigger. Families don't sell into a soft market when the schools are this good; that keeps demand resilient.
4. No pandemic relocator speculation. Frisco was a destination for out-of-state buyers chasing brand recognition (PGA HQ, The Star, Stonebriar). South DFW grew through organic Dallas commuter spillover. Organic demand doesn't reverse the same way speculative demand does.
5. Lower payment shock at current rates. A $440K Mansfield buyer at 6.5% has roughly $1,000 less monthly principal-and-interest than a $700K Frisco buyer at the same rate. The South DFW buyer is less stretched, which means fewer forced sales and less price pressure on the way down.

None of this means the gap is permanent. Texas A&M's TRERC January 2026 forecast expects sales to pick up modestly statewide as rates ease. If they do, demand will normalize across both halves of the metro. But for spring 2026 specifically, the data shows the gap is real.

What This Means if You're Buying in 2026

Two practical takeaways if you're shopping right now.

If you're locked on Collin County, you have leverage. Homes are sitting longer (27 to 54 days versus 14 days at the peak), 71 percent of sales close under list, and sellers are negotiating. Inspections matter again. Repair credits and price reductions are normal in this environment, not unusual. Just don't expect the dip to keep deepening. NAR's 2026 outlook expects rates to ease and sales to rise 14% nationwide, which will tighten things back up.

If you're open to South DFW, you'll get more home for the same money. The price-per-square-foot delta between Frisco and Mansfield is meaningful. Comparable square footage runs roughly $150K less in Mansfield, and the homes here are not older or smaller. The trade is commute distance to North Dallas employers (35 to 50 minutes typical) and less of the new-construction master-planned vibe that defines Frisco and Prosper. The schools are excellent, the property tax bill works out close to the same dollar amount on a lower-priced home, and you're buying into a market that didn't have to correct.

What This Means if You're Selling in Mansfield, Midlothian, or Waxahachie

Price right and your home still sells in a reasonable window. Mansfield's 73-day median DOM is longer than 2022 (when 14 days was normal) but it's not a buyer's market the way Collin County has become. Realtor.com calls Mansfield "balanced" as of March 2026, with homes selling at 2.83 percent below asking on average.

Three rules apply right now:

• Don't anchor to 2022 comps. They were peak-pandemic and they don't reflect today's buyers. Pull comparables from the last 60 days, not the last 24 months.
• Don't overprice and chase the market down. A price reduction after 30 days on market signals weakness. Price it right the first time and you avoid the staleness penalty.
• Don't assume the North DFW correction is contagious. The data above is two months old at most. Buyers shopping South DFW are still here. Read the headlines about Collin County and stay calm. That's not your market.

For a current-quarter snapshot of where Mansfield, Midlothian, and Waxahachie sit in the broader DFW picture, see our DFW Housing Market Update for Spring 2026.

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Frequently Asked Questions

The questions buyers and sellers in DFW are asking right now about the 2026 market split.