DFW Housing Market Update
October 2026
Where the DFW Housing Market Stands Right Now
Texas recorded 28,740 closed sales in August, down 4.7% from a year earlier, according to Texas A&M’s Texas Housing Insight (October 2026). Sales for the year so far were still up 2.1%. The statewide median price was $330,000, down from $339,000 in July and $335,000 a year earlier, while Texas A&M’s price index was flat year over year, ending 15 straight months of annual declines.
The DFW metro slowed a little more than the state. It had 7,731 August sales, down 5.7% from a year earlier, though sales for the year so far were up 0.9%. Active listings fell 4% from July to 34,099, which is 5.9% below a year ago, and new listings ran 7.7% behind last year.
DFW in August 2026: Texas A&M headline numbers
$389K
DFW median sale price (August 2026)
7,731
DFW closed sales (−5.7% year over year)
4.4 mo
DFW months of supply (Texas: 5.3)
34,099
DFW active listings (−5.9% year over year)
Sales slowed, but the supply of homes for sale shrank with them. DFW’s 4.4 months of supply is below the statewide 5.3, so buyers face higher borrowing costs without more homes to choose from than a year ago.
What Today's Mortgage Rates Mean for Affordability
Mortgage rates rose sharply this fall. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% the week of October 22, 2026, up from 6.71% on September 3 and 6.19% a year earlier, after peaking at 7.40% on October 8 and 15. The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4%, on September 16.
These are national averages, used here as examples. On a $400,000 home with 20% down, the $320,000 loan costs $2,198 a month in principal and interest at 7.32%. That is $131 more than at September’s rate and $240 more than at last year’s 6.19%.
What a Rate Move Means for Your Monthly Payment
Monthly principal and interest on a $400K home at 80% loan-to-value, across four rate scenarios.
- Today (7.32%) $2,198/mo
- −25 bps (7.07%) $2,144/mo
- −50 bps (6.82%) $2,090/mo
- −100 bps (6.32%) $1,985/mo
From 7.32%, a quarter-point drop saves about $54 a month on this loan, and a full point saves about $213, or roughly $2,559 a year. Covering principal and interest alone at a 28% housing ratio takes about $94,200 a year in income. Property taxes and insurance push that higher, and 2026 combined rates for in-city homes in Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie run about $1.94 to $2.25 per $100 before exemptions.
Is DFW a Buyer's or Seller's Market Right Now?
Redfin rates both Dallas and Fort Worth as “somewhat competitive” for the three months ending September 2026. Dallas homes drew 2 offers on average and sold in about 53 days, at a $450,000 median, up 3.4%. Fort Worth homes drew 1 offer and sold in about 51 days, at a $330,000 median, down 1.5%.
Supply is tighter in DFW than across Texas. The metro had 4.4 months of supply in August against 5.3 statewide, and Texas A&M calls DFW the weakest large Texas market on the supply side, with new listings soft since April. Buyers still have room to negotiate on homes that sit, and the median Texas seller cut was $14,900 in August, about 4% of the original list price.
South DFW vs the metro headline
| Market | Median (YoY), 3 mo. to Sept. 2026 | Days on Market | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | $486K (+3.7%) | 53 | Prices up, selling faster than last year |
| Waxahachie | $400K (+9.7%) | 72 | Biggest price gain, slower sales |
| Midlothian | $476K (−2.8%) | 69 | Price dipped, selling faster than last year |
| Dallas (city) | $450K (+3.4%) | 53 | Somewhat competitive |
| Fort Worth (city) | $330K (−1.5%) | 51 | Somewhat competitive |
Source: Redfin, city-level medians and median days on market for the three months ending September 2026, pulled October 23, 2026.
Mansfield and Waxahachie medians rose, while Midlothian’s slipped. Mansfield homes sold in 53 days, faster than Midlothian (69) and Waxahachie (72). Waxahachie’s 9.7% gain came with slower sales than a year ago, and Midlothian’s dip came with faster ones. For a closer look at the north end of the metro, see our North DFW correction analysis.
South DFW Spotlights: Mansfield, Midlothian, Waxahachie
The three South DFW cities moved in different directions this fall. These figures are Redfin medians for the three months ending September 2026, the same source Modern Feather uses on its city pages.
Mansfield: a snapshot
Mansfield’s median reached $486,000, up 3.7% from a year earlier, and homes sold in 53 days instead of 61. Sales were thinner, with 252 homes sold in September, down 23.4%. Homes sold for 98.3% of list price.
Mansfield spans Tarrant, Ellis and Johnson counties, and each has its own tax rates, so Silvia pulls the exact rate for the address before you write an offer.
A recent Mansfield close from Silvia: 2501 Blossom Trail, $395,000 (buyer side, closed May 2026).
Talk to Silvia about the Mansfield marketMidlothian: a snapshot
Midlothian’s median slipped to $476,000, down 2.8%, but homes sold faster, in 69 days instead of 93. September sales fell 7.1% to 218, and homes sold for 98.1% of list price. Silvia works with buyers and sellers across Ellis County, including Midlothian.
Waxahachie: a snapshot
Waxahachie’s median rose 9.7% to $400,000, the biggest gain of the three. Homes took longer to sell, 72 days against 60 a year ago, while September sales rose 4.4% to 221. It is still the lowest-priced of the three, about $86,000 below Mansfield. Silvia works with buyers and sellers across Ellis County, including Waxahachie.
What's Driving the Fall 2026 Market
Rates are the main force. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average climbed back above 7% in late September and stood at 7.32% on October 22, after the Fed’s September 16 rate hike. Texas A&M points out that rates above 7% weighed heavily on buyers and sellers during the 2023 downturn.
Jobs are holding up. DFW had 4,354,800 nonfarm jobs in September, about 36,200 more than a year earlier, or 0.8% growth, while unemployment was 4.2% in August, up from 4.0% a year earlier (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data via FRED).
Three forces shaping fall 2026
Higher borrowing costs
The example $320,000 loan costs $2,198 a month in principal and interest at 7.32%, $131 more than in early September.
Fewer new listings
DFW new listings ran 7.7% below last year in August, and active listings were down 5.9%.
Modest job growth
DFW added about 36,200 jobs over the year to September, and unemployment edged up to 4.2%.
Prices are holding steady statewide for now. Texas A&M’s price index was flat year over year in August, and within DFW, Fort Worth-area prices rose 0.6% while Dallas-area prices were down 1.2%.
What Texas A&M and Economists Are Saying
Texas A&M’s October report ties the August slowdown to rates and affordability.
“Texas housing activity slowed in August as higher mortgage rates and affordability pressures dampened demand.”
— Yanling Mayer, Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, October 2026
“Mortgage rates have climbed back above 7 percent, a threshold that previously weighed heavily on buyers and sellers during the 2023 market downturn.”
— Yanling Mayer, Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, October 2026
In March, UT Arlington’s Sriram Villupuram expected prices to stay flat or dip slightly through mid-2026. Statewide prices were flat year over year in August.
“The DFW housing market is transitioning from a frenzied seller's market to a more balanced — but slower — environment. Home values fell around 5% in 2025, with broad softening across most counties. Looking ahead, prices will likely remain flat or decline slightly through mid-2026 due to high interest rates and slower economic growth.”
— Sriram Villupuram, Associate Professor of Finance and Real Estate, University of Texas at Arlington, March 6, 2026
What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
Texas A&M expects housing activity to stay restrained and possibly slow further through the end of the year. Three things will shape the next few months.
1. Rates come first. The Fed meets October 27–28. Freddie Mac’s average has eased slightly from its 7.40% peak but remains well above early September’s 6.71%.
2. DFW supply is tighter than last year. The metro entered fall with 5.9% fewer active listings and 7.7% fewer new listings than a year earlier.
3. Prices keep moving differently by area. Fort Worth-area prices have risen for four straight months on Texas A&M’s index, while Dallas-area prices were down 1.2% in August. The Texas REALTORS third-quarter report, released October 20, put the statewide median at $333,628, down 0.4% from a year earlier.
If You're Selling vs If You're Buying This Fall
If you're selling
- Price close to the market. The median Texas seller cut was $14,900 in August, about 4% of the original list price.
- Plan for a normal pace. Homes sold in a median of 53 days in Mansfield, 69 in Midlothian and 72 in Waxahachie.
- Expect about 98% of list. Homes in all three cities sold for 98.1% to 98.3% of list price.
- Check the county line first. In Mansfield, the Tarrant, Ellis or Johnson County rates change the tax math, so pull them before you set price and terms.
If you're buying
- Run the payment at today's rate. At 7.32%, a $320,000 loan costs $2,198 a month in principal and interest. If rates fall later, a refinance can lower it.
- Know what a rate drop is worth. A half-point drop from 7.32% saves about $108 a month on that loan, so ask the seller or builder for a rate buy-down or closing-cost help in the offer.
- Use days on market as a signal. Homes that have sat longer than the local median, 53 days in Mansfield and about 70 in Midlothian and Waxahachie, are the ones to ask about price and terms.
- Run the county-line math. A Mansfield address can sit in Tarrant, Ellis or Johnson County, each with its own tax rates, so get the exact rate before you write an offer.
Buyers and sellers should both work from city and county numbers, since Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie moved in different directions this fall.
Methodology + Sources
Every number on this page comes from a published source, listed below.
Sources used
- Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center (Texas and DFW metro sales, median prices, inventory, months of supply, new listings, seller price cuts and the home price index). Texas Housing Insight, October 2026, published October 23, 2026 (August data).
- Texas REALTORS® (statewide third-quarter median price). Q3 2026 housing report, released October 20, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30-year fixed rate). Week of October 22, 2026, with earlier weeks from the FRED archive.
- Federal Reserve (federal funds target range). FOMC statement, September 16, 2026.
- Redfin (Dallas, Fort Worth, Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie city data). Three months ending September 2026, pulled October 23, 2026.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (DFW unemployment rate, August 2026; DFW nonfarm jobs, September 2026).
- University of Texas at Arlington (expert quote from Sriram Villupuram, Associate Professor of Finance and Real Estate). UTA News, March 6, 2026.
Per-city sourcing note
City-level figures are Redfin medians, days on market and year-over-year change for the three months ending September 2026. Redfin’s Dallas and Fort Worth figures cover those cities, while Texas A&M’s DFW figures cover the whole metro area, so the two sets differ.
Past updates
This page carries the latest update. Earlier editions stay online with their original numbers:
- DFW Housing Market: Spring 2026 Update (May 30, 2026)
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices dropping in DFW?
Not across the board. Texas A&M’s index shows Fort Worth-area prices up 0.6% year over year in August, their fourth straight gain, while Dallas-area prices were down 1.2%. In South DFW, Mansfield’s median rose 3.7% and Waxahachie’s 9.7%, while Midlothian’s fell 2.8% (Redfin, three months to September 2026).
Is it wise to buy a home in DFW in 2026?
It can be, if the monthly payment fits and you plan to stay. Rates are higher this fall: at 7.32%, a $320,000 loan costs $2,198 a month in principal and interest, $131 more than in early September. DFW also has fewer homes for sale than a year ago, 4.4 months of supply in August, so the most room to negotiate is on homes that have sat.
How much income do I need to afford a $400K home in DFW?
With 20% down, a $400,000 home needs a $320,000 loan. At 7.32% over 30 years, principal and interest are $2,198 a month, and keeping that at 28% of income takes about $94,200 a year. Property taxes and insurance add more, and 2026 combined rates for in-city homes in Mansfield, Midlothian and Waxahachie run about $1.94 to $2.25 per $100 before exemptions.
Will DFW home prices crash in 2026?
The current data does not show a crash. Statewide prices were flat year over year in August, and DFW had 5.9% fewer active listings than a year earlier, so homes for sale are not piling up. Sales are slower, down 5.7% in August, and Texas A&M ties that slowdown to higher rates and affordability.
What's the housing market forecast for Texas in 2026?
Texas A&M expects housing activity to stay restrained and possibly slow further through the end of 2026, with mortgage rates back above 7%. Statewide prices were flat year over year in August after 15 months of small declines, and Texas had 5.3 months of supply.
Is DFW a buyer's or seller's market right now?
Somewhere in between. Redfin rates Dallas and Fort Worth as somewhat competitive: Dallas homes drew about 2 offers and sold in 53 days, Fort Worth homes about 1 offer in 51 days. DFW had 4.4 months of supply in August, below 5.3 statewide, so buyers have the most room on homes that sit.
When will mortgage rates come down?
No one can say for sure. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 7.32% on October 22, down slightly from 7.40% on October 8 and 15 but up from 6.71% in early September. The Fed’s next meeting is October 27–28. On our example loan, each quarter-point drop saves about $54 a month.
Talk to a South DFW Specialist