DFW Housing Market Update
Fall 2026
Where the DFW Housing Market Stands Right Now
At the Texas level, the picture is simple: prices held flat. The statewide median stayed at $340,000 year-over-year in Q2 2026, after a small Q1 dip that was the first in more than a decade. Sales improved, with closed sales up 4.5% to 99,688. And the years-long inventory build finally stopped; active listings rose just 0.2%, and months of supply eased to 5.4 from 5.6.
Homes still take time to sell. Average days on market reached 65, up from 62 a year ago. In June, TRERC put the statewide median at $342,900, up from $340,000 in May, with sold homes averaging 62 days on market. The numbers are not booming, but they stopped sliding.
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025: Texas headline numbers
$340K
Statewide median price (Q2 2026, flat YoY)
65 days
Average days on market (+3 vs Q2 2025)
5.4 mo
Months of inventory (down from 5.6)
+4.5%
Texas closed sales YoY (Q2 2026)
That mix tells you the market found its footing over the summer. It is not hot, and it is not falling apart. Sellers still need to price with care, and buyers still have room to negotiate. But the softening from earlier this year stopped spreading.
What Today's Mortgage Rates Mean for Affordability
Mortgage rates did not get easier this year. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 6.71% the week ending September 3, 2026, and the 15-year fixed was 6.04%. A year ago the 30-year fixed was 6.50%, so rates are about 21 basis points higher than last year, not lower. The drop many buyers kept waiting for has not arrived.
That matters because payment is still the biggest hurdle for many buyers. As UTA real estate economist Sriram Villupuram put it: “Affordability pressures from higher mortgage rates are a major impediment to the DFW housing market. … Mortgage rates remain high compared with pre-2022 levels, limiting buyers' purchasing power and slowing demand” (UTA, March 6, 2026). The practical question is what each 25-basis-point move means for your monthly payment.
What a 25 bps Rate Move Means for Your Monthly Payment
Monthly principal and interest on a $400K home at 80% loan-to-value, across four rate scenarios.
- Today (6.71%) $2,067/mo
- −25 bps (6.46%) $2,014/mo
- −50 bps (6.21%) $1,962/mo
- −100 bps (5.71%) $1,859/mo
A 25 basis-point drop saves about $53 per month on a $320,000 loan. A full point lower, at 5.71%, saves about $208 per month, or roughly $2,492 a year. To afford a $400,000 home at a 28% housing ratio, plan on about $90,000 to $105,000 in income, depending on your county’s taxes and insurance. Those numbers move the qualifying math more than the price ceiling, which is why buyers waiting for a 5% rate often wish later they had locked at 6.71% while prices were still soft.
Is DFW a Buyer's or Seller's Market in 2026?
At the metro level, DFW looks more balanced than it did in spring. Redfin now calls Dallas “somewhat competitive”: homes get about 2 offers and sell in about 45 days, at a median of $475,000, up 2.1% year-over-year. Fort Worth is also “somewhat competitive,” with about 1 offer, roughly 46 days, and a $340,000 median that is close to flat.
That does not mean buyers lost their leverage. Texas still had 5.4 months of inventory in Q2, and homes take longer to sell than last year. Buyers can still ask for terms, especially on a home that has been sitting. But the spring setup, when DFW read as a lopsided buyer’s market, is not the right lens for fall.
South DFW vs the metro headline
| Market | Median (YoY), 2026 | Days on Market | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | $482K (+0.5%) | 48 | Firm, sells fast |
| Waxahachie | $382K (+1.9%) | 67 | Rising, the value play |
| Midlothian | $475K (−4.4%) | 69 | Softer, more room to negotiate |
| Dallas (metro) | $475K (+2.1%) | 45 | Somewhat competitive |
| Fort Worth (metro) | $340K (flat) | 46 | Somewhat competitive |
Source: Redfin (Dallas and Fort Worth metro data, August 2026; South DFW city medians, trailing 90-day, September 2026).
The local read matters more in South DFW. Mansfield is firmer, Midlothian is softer, and Waxahachie is rising at a lower price than the other two. If you shop or sell across these cities as if they are one market, you will miss the real signal. For a closer look at the north end of the metro, see our North DFW correction analysis.
South DFW Spotlights: Mansfield, Midlothian, Waxahachie
Three South DFW cities, three different stories. Mansfield is firm and sells fast, Waxahachie is rising and the value play, and Midlothian softened this year. These city figures are Redfin trailing-90-day medians, the same source behind Modern Feather's individual city pages, so the numbers here match what you see there.
Mansfield: a snapshot
Mansfield held firm. The trailing 90-day median was $482,000, up 0.5% year-over-year, with about 48 days on market, around $142,000 above the statewide median.
Mansfield also crosses Tarrant, Ellis, and Johnson counties, and each taxes differently. On a $500,000 home, the county line can swing the yearly tax bill by several thousand dollars. That is why Silvia pulls the exact rate for the specific address before you write an offer.
A recent Mansfield close from Silvia: 2501 Blossom Trail, $395,000 (buyer side, closed May 2026).
Talk to Silvia about the Mansfield marketMidlothian: a snapshot
Midlothian was the softest of the three this year. The trailing 90-day median was $475,000, down 4.4% year-over-year, with about 69 days on market. This is where buyers have the most negotiating room right now. The US-287 corridor to Arlington still keeps it on many buyers’ lists, and Silvia represents buyers and sellers across Ellis County.
Waxahachie: a snapshot
Waxahachie kept moving up. The trailing 90-day median was $382,000, up 1.9% year-over-year, with about 67 days on market. It is the value play in this group, sitting about $93,000 below Midlothian and about $100,000 below Mansfield. The historic downtown and quick I-35E access to Dallas keep demand steady, and Silvia works buyers and sellers across Ellis County.
What's Actually Driving the Fall 2026 Market
The short version: supply settled down, and buyers adjusted to rates near 6.7%. Statewide inventory eased to 5.4 months from 5.6. Active listings rose just 0.2% year-over-year. Prices stayed flat while sales rose. That is what a market looks like when it stops sliding and starts to stabilize.
Jobs are still helping. The Dallas Fed’s June report put DFW unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings at $37.45, up 2.9% year-over-year and above the state level. Job growth ran 1.4% annualized over the first four months of 2026, and DFW existing-home sales climbed for three straight months through April. The friction was always on the affordability side, not the economy side.
Three forces shaping fall 2026
Buyers stopped waiting
Buyers stopped waiting for a rate drop that never came. At 6.71%, slightly above last year, many started transacting anyway.
The inventory build stopped
Statewide active listings rose just 0.2% year-over-year. After years of double-digit jumps, the supply surge is over.
Price cuts are shrinking
The median seller cut $12,000, or 3.3% of list, down from $13,000 a year ago. Smaller cuts, firmer pricing.
TRERC framed the same shift in its August report: Texas housing activity gained momentum in the first half of 2026 as sales outpaced last year and buyers adapted to higher rates and better inventory. The practical version is simple: buyers stopped waiting for a perfect rate and started transacting at the rate that exists.
What Economists and Texas A&M Are Saying
Three voices sum up the fall market from different angles. Their wording tells you what to plan around.
“A flat statewide number might sound like nothing happened, but that’s not what our members are seeing on the ground. The real story is always local, and that’s exactly where your Texas REALTOR® can help.”
— Jennifer Wauhob, Chairman, Texas REALTORS®, Q2 2026 Quarterly Housing Report (July 2026)
“This modest and yet sustained improvement suggests that underlying housing demand remains resilient despite ongoing economic headwinds and persistent affordability constraints.”
— Yanling Mayer, Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, August 2026
Earlier this year, UT Arlington economist Sriram Villupuram said the market would flatten out. That read held; prices came in flat through mid-2026.
“The DFW housing market is transitioning from a frenzied seller's market to a more balanced — but slower — environment. Home values fell around 5% in 2025, with broad softening across most counties. Looking ahead, prices will likely remain flat or decline slightly through mid-2026 due to high interest rates and slower economic growth.”
— Sriram Villupuram, Associate Professor of Finance and Real Estate, University of Texas at Arlington, March 6, 2026
What to Expect for the Rest of 2026
Three things are likely to define the South DFW market through the back half of 2026.
1. Prices stay roughly flat. The Q2 statewide median came in flat year-over-year, and the small Q1 dip did not turn into a slide (Texas REALTORS®). The UTA forecast of flat-to-slightly-down through mid-2026 played out. Expect small, city-by-city moves: Mansfield firm, Waxahachie up, Midlothian softer, not one broad direction.
2. Days on market stay a touch longer than last year. Homes sold in about 65 days statewide in Q2, three days longer than a year ago, and 62 days in June (TRERC). Sellers who price for 2022 will sit. Sellers who price to where buyers actually are will move.
3. Buyers keep real negotiation room, though less than in spring. The median Texas seller cut $12,000 (3.3%) off list before closing, down from $13,000 a year ago (TRERC). Rate buy-downs and closing-cost help still show up routinely on the offers Silvia reviews. The buy-side leverage is real, but it is concentrated on the homes that have been sitting longer than the local average.
There is no inventory explosion coming. Statewide active listings were up just 0.2% year-over-year in Q2. After years of double-digit jumps, the supply build has essentially stopped.
If You're Selling vs If You're Buying This Fall
If you're selling
- Price close to the market. The median Texas seller cut $12,000, or 3.3% of list, before closing. Pricing above the comparable sale next door is the fast path to a listing that sits.
- Expect a normal sales pace. Statewide days on market ran 65. Mansfield is faster, near 48, but no DFW market is back to two-week sales.
- Watch the local clock. In Mansfield, a listing starts to look stale past about 50 days. Price and prep for that window, not for 2022.
- Check the county line first. If your home is in Mansfield, the Tarrant, Ellis, or Johnson County rate changes the tax math before you set price and terms.
If you're buying
- Run your payment at today's rate. 6.71% is the working number. If a 5% scenario opens up later, refinance. Do not skip a house while you wait on the Fed.
- Ask for the rate buy-down. Builders and motivated sellers are offering 2-1 and permanent buy-downs more freely than a year ago. Make it part of the offer.
- Use days on market as a signal. Homes past about 50 days in Mansfield, or 80 in Midlothian and Waxahachie, are where price cuts and concessions land hardest. Filter your search by it.
- Run the county-line math. A $500,000 Mansfield home's tax bill shifts by thousands a year depending on Tarrant, Ellis, or Johnson County. Have your agent pull the exact rate before you write.
The market is split in two, but the playbook is the same for both sides: trust the numbers in front of you, not the national headlines. Mansfield is not Dallas. Ellis County is not Tarrant. An agent who pulls the right comps for the right county is the difference between a smooth close and a 90-day grind.
Methodology + Sources
Every number on this page traces to a published primary source. Sources used are listed below.
Sources used
- Texas REALTORS® Q2 2026 Quarterly Housing Report (statewide totals: median price, closed sales, days on market, months of inventory, active listings). Released July 21, 2026.
- Texas A&M University Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) (statewide monthly detail: median price, days on market, seller price cuts). Texas Housing Insight, August 2026 (June reference month).
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates). Week ending September 3, 2026.
- Redfin (Dallas and Fort Worth metro conditions, plus South DFW city medians). Metro market data as of August 2026; city medians are trailing 90-day, pulled September 2026.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (DFW economic indicators: jobs, unemployment, wages, existing-home sales). June 2026 issue (April data).
- University of Texas at Arlington (expert quote from Sriram Villupuram, Associate Professor of Finance and Real Estate). UTA News, March 6, 2026.
Per-city sourcing note
City-level figures (Mansfield, Midlothian, Waxahachie) are Redfin trailing-90-day medians, days on market, and year-over-year change, pulled September 2026, the same source and method behind Modern Feather's individual city pages, so the numbers here match those pages. Statewide figures come from Texas REALTORS® (Q2 2026) and TRERC (August 2026); Dallas and Fort Worth metro figures come from Redfin (August 2026).
Silvia's Take on the Fall 2026 South DFW Market
“My read for fall 2026 is simple. DFW feels closer to balanced now. It does not feel like spring. Mansfield still looks firm to me. Midlothian gives buyers more room. Waxahachie still brings value. If you are buying, run the payment math at 6.71% first, then look hard at homes that have sat. That is where concessions show up. If you are selling or buying in Mansfield, I pull county-by-county comps, because Tarrant, Ellis, and Johnson do not price the same. I tell clients to plan for 50 to 90 days, not a rush.”
Silvia Poulin
REALTOR®, Modern Feather Realty Group · South DFW specialist
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices dropping in DFW?
The broad answer is no, not across the board. The fall 2026 story is flatter than spring, with signs of firming. Texas was flat year-over-year at $340,000. In South DFW the local split matters more: Mansfield was up 0.5%, Waxahachie up 1.9%, and Midlothian down 4.4%.
Is it wise to buy a home in DFW in 2026?
It can be, if the payment works for you and you plan to stay put. The market is more balanced than it was in spring, and buyers still have room to negotiate, especially on homes that sit. But rates are still high at 6.71%, so the monthly payment is the number that counts, not a perfect-rate headline.
How much income do I need to afford a $400K home in DFW?
For a $400,000 home with 20% down, plan on about $90,000 to $105,000 per year at a 28% housing ratio, depending on taxes and insurance. At 6.71%, principal and interest on a $320,000 loan is about $2,067 per month. That figure does not include taxes, insurance, or HOA.
Will DFW home prices crash in 2026?
The data does not point to a crash. It points to a slower, more balanced market. Statewide prices were flat year-over-year. Sales rose 4.5%. Inventory eased from 5.6 months to 5.4. Some cities are softer than others, but the fall pattern is stabilization, not a sharp break lower.
What's the housing market forecast for Texas in 2026?
Flat to mixed, with local variation. Texas was flat year-over-year in Q2 at $340,000. Prices rose in 14 metros, fell in 11, and 1 was unchanged. The four largest metros each fell less than 1.5%. That is why local city data tells you more than a single statewide headline.
Is DFW a buyer's or seller's market right now?
It is closer to balanced now. Redfin calls both Dallas and Fort Worth “somewhat competitive.” Dallas homes get about 2 offers and sell in about 45 days. Fort Worth homes get about 1 offer and sell in about 46 days. Buyers still have room because inventory was 5.4 months statewide, but less than in spring.
When will mortgage rates come down?
No one knows, and anyone who says otherwise is guessing. Rates had not come down by early September: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed was 6.71% the week ending September 3, 2026, versus 6.50% a year earlier. Plan around today's number. If it drops 25 basis points, the payment on our example loan falls about $53 a month.
Talk to a South DFW Specialist